3/11/2025:
Tuesday Mortgage Memo: Your Weekly Market Highlights
With tariffs, rate cuts, and economic uncertainty dominating headlines, it’s a pivotal week for brokers to guide clients and seize opportunities. Here’s what you need to know to stay ahead, win business, and keep clients informed:
1️⃣ Bank of Canada Rate Cut Looms—Prep Clients Now
Bond markets peg an 84% chance of a 25-bps Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut tomorrow, March 12, driven by weak February job growth (+1,100 vs. 20,000 expected) and tariff threats. (Source: MortgageLogic.News – Mar. 10, 2025)
2️⃣ Tariff Chaos Softens—Buyer Confidence Could Rebound
Trump’s latest tariff delay (until April 2) on Canadian goods eased bond yields (Canada 5-year down 6 bps Monday), but steel/aluminum tariffs jumped to 50%, stoking inflation fears. (Source: MortgageLogic.News – Mar. 6 & Bruno Valko – Mar. 11, 2025)
3️⃣ Renewals Are Gold—Big Banks Are Hungry
First National’s originations surged 44% last quarter, and their renewal profits soar without broker fees. Retention dipped in 2024 as competition heats up. (Source: MortgageLogic.News – Mar. 5, 2025)
4️⃣ Variable Rates Still Reign, But Fixed Rates Gain Ground
Variable rates project the lowest 5-year cost with more easing expected, though 5-year fixed rates dropped to 4.19% amid falling yields. (Source: MortgageLogic.News – Mar. 10, 2025 & Integrated Mortgage Planners – Mar. 10, 2025)
5️⃣ Economic Volatility = Opportunity
U.S. layoffs hit pandemic highs, and the Atlanta Fed predicts a Q1 GDP drop, pushing U.S. 10-year yields down 7 bps. Canada’s resilience (2.6% Q4 GDP) offers a buffer. (Source: RMG Monday Morning Bru – Mar. 10, 2025 & Fraction – Mar. 5, 2025)
📢 Final Thought:
This week’s BoC decision and tariff twists are your chance to shine. Proactive brokers who educate clients on rate cuts, counter bank renewal traps, and turn uncertainty into opportunity will come out on top. Get ahead of the curve—your clients need you now more than ever.
Let’s make it a strong week!
📢 Stay Informed, Stay Ahead!
These updates are a high-level summary. For deeper insights, subscribe to Mortgage Logic News via our ABW Agent Intranet under our corporate plan.
Episode 32: Behind the Lender with Sequence Capital
Guest: Arif Mulji and Christine Perkins
Episode 32 of The Mortgage Broker Podcast features Arif Mulji and Christine Perkins, revealing how Sequence Capital, backed by AMUR Financial Group’s 55-year legacy, has become Canada’s largest private residential lender by assets ($1B+), offering brokers equity-driven, flexible mortgage solutions and rapid service—perfect for growing your business in 2025.
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