3/5/2025:
Navigating the U.S. Tariffs: A Positive Outlook for Our Team and Clients
Hello Team,
We're excited to share a special bonus blog today, as we believe it's crucial to address the current state of affairs in our country. Our goal is to provide a sense of calm amidst the storm for you, our valued Agents, and, most importantly, for all the clients we serve.
The U.S. tariffs hitting our goods as of March 4, 2025—with steel and aluminum tariffs looming on March 12—have rattled us and our clients. A 25% tariff on most goods, 10% on Canadian energy, and additional 10% on Chinese goods, as announced by President Donald Trump, is no small thing, and the headlines are fueling anxiety. But here’s the truth: Canada’s tougher than this, and so are we. As mortgage brokers, we’re perfectly positioned to calm our clients’ nerves and keep their homeownership goals alive. Let’s unpack what’s happening, what it means for our market, and how we can frame this with optimism. We’ve got this!
What’s Going On: The Lay of the Land
Trump has imposed these tariffs, claiming they’ll force Canada and Mexico to address undocumented migration and drug trafficking—though our Chief Economist notes Canada accounts for only about 1% of both issues. Canada’s political leaders—federal, provincial, all stripes—are pushing back hard, calling it unjust and hitting the U.S. with 25% retaliatory tariffs on $20.7 billion USD of goods (orange juice, peanut butter, etc.), with $107 billion more in the works. Our Chief Economist warns in her blog that this could plunge Canada into a recession with a few quarters of negative growth before recovery, but she also sees the Bank of Canada responding aggressively to ease the impact. Economists like Tiff Macklem from the Bank of Canada highlight a potential 3% GDP drop over two years, and lumber prices could reach $600/thousand board feet. But here’s our strength: Canada’s united, and we’ve got smart moves in play.
What It Means for Mortgage Brokers
Realistic Outcomes: Bright Spots to Share with Clients
Here are three solid scenarios to share with clients—each with a positive angle to ease fears and keep them on track:
1. The Negotiation Win – Rates Stay Friendly
2. The Pivot Play – A Stronger Canada Emerges
3. The Mutual Reset – Stability Returns
Your Playbook: Inspire and Act
Team, we’re the frontline for clients right now. They’re worried—home costs creeping up, job jitters—but we can flip that script. Highlight Canada’s grit: we’ve tackled trade spats before and come out stronger. Point to our leaders’ unity—every politician’s in this fight—and our economic clout (energy, manufacturing). Share these outcomes: a deal, a pivot, or a reset—all keep the housing market humming. Urge clients to act—rates could soften, and homes remain a solid investment. We’re not just brokers; we’re their rock.
Imagine this: next year, we’re thriving, with clients thanking us for keeping them steady. Let’s turn their concern into confidence, lean on each other, and show what Canada’s made of. You’ve got the tools—go make it happen! Need more for a client pitch? Just holler!
Insight from Our Chief Economist
- Dr. Sherry Cooper
In her latest blog, our Chief Economist writes: “This is a lose-lose situation and President Trump underestimates the negative fallout of his actions at home and abroad. Retaliation will be swift… Lower interest rates are favorable for housing markets, although the inevitable rise in unemployment and drop in spending will mitigate this effect.” Her analysis aligns with our approach, emphasizing both challenges and opportunities for our sector.
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We look forward to helping you stay ahead of the market in 2025.
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