3/25/2025:
Tuesday Mortgage Memo: Your Weekly Market Highlights
5 KEY HIGHLIGHTS BROKERS NEED TO KNOW
Another data-heavy week is behind us, and the path ahead for rates, client psychology, and policy direction remains anything but predictable. Here’s what brokers need to know to stay informed and proactive:
1️⃣ Canada’s Inflation Surged — But It Might Be Temporary
Canada’s CPI jumped to
2.64%, well above the
2.2% forecast, shaking confidence in near-term rate cuts. But much of the spike came from
expiring GST/HST rebates—a one-time inflationary push. Core inflation also crept to 2.9%, but with tariffs still to come, March’s data could be even more telling.
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Broker Strategy: Tell clients not to panic—this was expected post-GST. Frame it as a “blip,” not a trend. Encourage those in variable or renewing to review their rate outlook and consider shorter fixed terms as a hedge.
Source: MortgageLogic.News – Mar. 18, 2025
2️⃣ BoC Might Act Fast — In Either Direction
Governor Macklem confirmed that the Bank of Canada is now being
“less forward-looking” and could act
quickly if inflation expectations worsen. With inflation top of mind for Canadians and policy flexibility in play, the odds of an April rate cut are fading—but a hike isn’t off the table.
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Broker Strategy: Start planting the seed with clients—“rate cuts aren’t guaranteed.” Use language that opens the door for plan B strategies if inflation persists, especially for buyers banking on lower rates.
Source: MortgageLogic.News – Mar. 20, 2025
3️⃣ Fixed Rates Just Hit a Post-Hike Cycle Low
Nationally advertised
5-year insured rates dropped to 3.64%, the lowest since March 2022. That puts the qualifying rate at just
5.64%, only 39 bps above the stress test floor. With inflation volatility swirling, lenders are competing hard on insured deals to revive volume.
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Broker Strategy: Promote insured purchases and switches hard this week. Lower qualifying rates mean better approvals. Use urgency language—“these rates may not last if inflation data worsens.”
Source: MortgageLogic.News – Mar. 21, 2025
4️⃣ BMO Tightens on Self-Employed Borrowers in Risky Sectors
BMO cut back on lending flexibility for business-for-self (BFS) clients in industries like
construction, retail, transport, finance, and steel—lowering TDS caps and requiring
750+ FICO. It’s the first major bank response to tariff-driven risk exposure.
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Broker Strategy: Review your database—contact BFS clients in affected industries now. Encourage refinancing
before policy shifts spread to other lenders or before income volatility hits.
Source: MortgageLogic.News – Mar. 21, 2025
5️⃣ U.S. Uncertainty and Tariffs Cloud the Outlook
The U.S. Fed held rates steady and admitted to “remarkably high” uncertainty, while “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2 loom large. Markets are now pricing in slower growth and persistent inflation. That combo spells
volatility ahead for rates and risk appetite.
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Broker Strategy: Use this as an education moment—“Don’t wait on the sidelines for perfect clarity.” Highlight the benefits of locking in today’s rates versus gambling on unpredictable cross-border politics.
Sources: Integrated Mortgage Planners – Mar. 24, 2025; RMG Morning Bru – Mar. 24, 2025
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FINAL THOUGHT:
This isn’t the time for clients to sit idle or assume rate drops are a sure thing. Inflation surprises, political volatility, and lender policy shifts demand proactive guidance. Brokers who help clients stay nimble—especially by clarifying risks in floating vs. fixed—will stand out and win trust.
Let’s get ahead of it—your clients are counting on you.
Stay informed, stay ahead.
EPISODE 34: UNLOCKING THE MIC PLAYBOOK - INSIGHTS FROM BEN SAMMUT
Guest: Ben Sammut
In Episode 34 of The Mortgage Broker Podcast, "Unlocking the MIC Playbook," Ben Sammut shares his journey from broker to MIC expert, offering insights on the growing role of Mortgage Investment Corporations and private lending in Canada. Hosted by Dean Lawton and Deryk Williamson, the episode provides actionable tips for brokers and highlights the evolving landscape of private lending as a key opportunity in the mortgage industry.
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We look forward to helping you stay ahead of the market in 2025.
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